The New York Times reports that China is grappling with an accelerating demographic collapse, as newly released government data reveals its population contracted for the fourth year in a row.
Despite Beijing’s aggressive shift from the “one-child policy” to expansive pro-natalist incentives, birth rates have plunged to historic lows, falling below 8 million in 2025.
This persistent decline, fueled by economic insecurity and a shrinking workforce, poses a fundamental threat to China’s status as a global economic powerhouse and places an immense burden on its rapidly aging social security systems.
The report highlights that births in China have dropped by nearly 50% since 2016. In 2025, the number of newborns fell to approximately 7.92 million, a staggering decline from 9.54 million the previous year.
The New York Times emphasizes that government efforts—including direct cash subsidies for second and third children, extended maternity leave, and tax breaks—have largely fallen flat.
Young Chinese couples cite the “high cost of living,” “intense workplace competition,” and “prohibitively expensive housing” as the primary barriers to starting families.
For the first time, the report notes that the number of people aged 60 and over has surpassed 300 million (over 21% of the population). This creates a “silver tsunami” that threatens to drain provincial pension funds and overwhelm the healthcare system.
The “shrinking workforce” means China is losing its competitive edge in low-cost manufacturing.
The NYT analysts argue that this labor shortage will eventually drive up global inflation as the “world’s factory” is forced to raise wages or move production elsewhere.
The report also points to a sharp decline in marriage registrations, which hit a record low.
A significant segment of Chinese women, particularly in urban areas, is increasingly prioritizing career autonomy over traditional family structures, a cultural shift that the state has struggled to influence.
This demographic trend is described by the Times as a “slow-motion crisis” for President Xi Jinping’s vision of a “Great Rejuvenation.”
The inability to stabilize the population growth challenges the long-term sustainability of the Chinese economic model.
China’s Demographic Crisis Deepens: Population Shrinks for Fourth Consecutive Year as Births Plummet
The New York Times reports that China is grappling with an accelerating demographic collapse, as newly released government data reveals its population contracted for the fourth year in a row.
Despite Beijing’s aggressive shift from the “one-child policy” to expansive pro-natalist incentives, birth rates have plunged to historic lows, falling below 8 million in 2025.
This persistent decline, fueled by economic insecurity and a shrinking workforce, poses a fundamental threat to China’s status as a global economic powerhouse and places an immense burden on its rapidly aging social security systems.
The report highlights that births in China have dropped by nearly 50% since 2016. In 2025, the number of newborns fell to approximately 7.92 million, a staggering decline from 9.54 million the previous year.
The New York Times emphasizes that government efforts—including direct cash subsidies for second and third children, extended maternity leave, and tax breaks—have largely fallen flat.
Young Chinese couples cite the “high cost of living,” “intense workplace competition,” and “prohibitively expensive housing” as the primary barriers to starting families.
For the first time, the report notes that the number of people aged 60 and over has surpassed 300 million (over 21% of the population). This creates a “silver tsunami” that threatens to drain provincial pension funds and overwhelm the healthcare system.
The “shrinking workforce” means China is losing its competitive edge in low-cost manufacturing.
The NYT analysts argue that this labor shortage will eventually drive up global inflation as the “world’s factory” is forced to raise wages or move production elsewhere.
The report also points to a sharp decline in marriage registrations, which hit a record low.
A significant segment of Chinese women, particularly in urban areas, is increasingly prioritizing career autonomy over traditional family structures, a cultural shift that the state has struggled to influence.
This demographic trend is described by the Times as a “slow-motion crisis” for President Xi Jinping’s vision of a “Great Rejuvenation.”
The inability to stabilize the population growth challenges the long-term sustainability of the Chinese economic model.
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