by Dr Mona Noreldeen
The world has endured a succession of crises and conflicts, beginning with COVID-19 in 2020, followed by the Russo-Ukrainian War in 2022, the events of October 7, 2023, and the subsequent war on Gaza. This was followed by the Bab al-Mandab crisis (2023–2025) and the 12-day Israeli-Iranian war in June 2025. With the escalation into a U.S.-Israeli war against Iran and the indirect involvement of Gulf states in the conflict, geographic determinism has reasserted itself with full force.
This shift was driven by the suspension of operations at numerous airports—particularly in the Gulf region—and the widespread closure of airspace. Following the previous airspace closures during the Russo-Ukrainian war, several Middle Eastern nations have now shuttered their skies, forcing a mandatory redirection toward specific aerial corridors. This has reshaped the map, highlighting the “open skies” and high-density traffic within the flight paths of Georgia.
Three Crises in Half a Decade (2020–2026)
This current situation marks the third major crisis for civil aviation in just over half a decade:
The First Crisis (2020): Triggered by COVID-19, leading to a total paralysis of civil aviation. Airlines worldwide—particularly in Europe, the Gulf, the U.S., and Japan—incurred massive losses.
The Second Crisis (2022): Emerged with the Russo-Ukrainian War. This was somewhat regional, affecting passenger movement between Asia and Europe as specific routes were closed.
The Third Crisis (2025–2026): The current and most severe crisis stemming from the U.S.-Israeli-Iranian war. It has closed numerous routes in the Middle East, shifting flights from expansive “Open Skies” to “Narrow Skies” over Georgia and Azerbaijan. Finding secure logistical corridors for aviation has become an incredibly difficult task.
Global Economic and Operational Impact
The crisis has disrupted global civil aviation by suspending certain flights, completely halting operations on specific routes, and causing a surge in ticket prices, travel insurance costs, and fuel prices. Due to logistical instability, many airlines have rushed to secure future fuel needs through long-term contracts to hedge against uncontrollable price hikes.
Among the most affected carriers are airBaltic, Air Europa, Air France, Emirates, Etihad Airways, and Lufthansa.
The Strategic Role of Egypt
As military strikes continue in the region, Egyptian airspace has emerged as a safe corridor. This presents a significant opportunity for Egyptian airlines and airports to facilitate transit traffic while maintaining the highest safety standards and rescheduling routes. Cairo International Airport has become a primary hub for transit flights at a time when major global aviation alliances and carriers have suspended operations indefinitely.
Once again, dynamic and strategic geographic location proves its growing role across land, sea, and air. This has led to a fundamental shift in the aerial navigation map, trending toward “Narrow Skies” or limited routes that steer clear of targeted airspaces.
- Dr Mona Noreldeen .. Professor of economic geography and transport and vice dean of Human studies faculty of Al – Azhar University .
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