China significantly expanded its exports to Africa last year, widening its trade surplus with the continent by 64.5 percent to a record $102 billion, according to official Chinese customs data
China’s exports to Africa surged last year, pushing its trade surplus with the continent to a record $102 billion.
The widening gap reflects Beijing’s push to find new markets as US tariffs squeeze Chinese goods elsewhere.
Economists say many imports, from machinery to solar panels, support Africa’s industrial ambitions but risk deepening dependency.
Analysts warn that without faster industrialisation, Africa may struggle to rebalance trade despite China’s pledge to eliminate tariffs.
The figures underscore how Beijing is deepening commercial ties with African economies amid intensifying trade tensions with Washington.
Data from China’s General Administration of Customs show Chinese exports to Africa jumped by 25.8 percent to $225 billion, far outpacing the 5.4 percent growth in African shipments to China, which rose to $123 billion. The resulting imbalance grew sharply from a $62 billion gap the previous year.
The shift comes as China faces higher tariffs on its goods in the United States, the world’s largest importer, following measures imposed by US President Donald Trump.
Beijing has responded with its own duties and non-tariff actions, while Chinese firms increasingly seek alternative markets.
Lauren Johnston, a China Africa specialist and senior research fellow at the AustChina Institute, said pressure on China’s exports elsewhere was likely driving the surge into Africa.
Tensions with the United States were pushing firms to find new outlets, and Africa offered substantial untapped demand for manufactured products.
“Since Africa is the market with the most latent demand for many of China’s manufactured goods, it’s an obvious target,” Johnston said.
She added that Chinese companies already operating on the continent may account for a significant share of the rising imports.
The trend also reflects Africa’s growing importance as a driver of global growth, as East Asia’s rapid catch-up phase has matured. Johnston noted that part of the increase likely stems from imports of capital goods such as heavy machinery and industrial equipment that many African economies need but do not yet produce.
Consultancy Capital Economics said a large share of Chinese goods entering Africa, including solar panels and construction materials, is central to the region’s industrialisation goals.
However, economists caution that the pace seen last year may not be sustained.
Charlie Robertson, an Africa-focused economist and author of The Time Travelling Economist, said Chinese exports remain competitively priced, but the surge in 2025 trade volumes is unlikely to be repeated on the same scale this year.
“We should expect further growth as Africa’s economies benefit from higher commodity prices, such as gold and copper,” he said.
Commodity markets have strengthened amid geopolitical uncertainty. Gold prices have climbed to a historic $4,858 per ounce, while copper reached a record $13,387 per tonne in early January, partly driven by demand from emerging industries.
China’s central bank has increased its gold holdings for 14 consecutive months, and Chinese firms continue to invest in African mining assets, including Zijin Mining’s $1 billion acquisition of Ghana’s Akyem gold mine.
In an effort to rebalance trade long dominated by raw materials, Beijing last year introduced a zero-tariff policy granting duty-free access to all products from 53 African countries with diplomatic ties to China. Yet Robertson said the policy does not tackle the deeper issue of low industrial capacity across much of the continent.
Oxford Economics has warned that trade tensions could intensify this year as China doubles down on an export-led growth strategy, potentially overwhelming local industries.
Jacques Nel, head of Africa Macro at Oxford Economics Africa, said raw materials still account for about 90 percent of African exports, while non-tariff barriers remain high.
He added that African countries could leverage the African Continental Free Trade Area to strengthen their bargaining power in negotiations with China.
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