Tensions are running high among the Ethiopian federal government, Ethiopia’s northern Tigray region and neighbouring Eritrea, threatening a return to deadly conflict three years after the last war ended. With several possible triggers, a slide toward hostilities would be easy to start but much more difficult to stop.
Tigray has been bracing for the possibility of renewed conflict after the parties signed a peace deal in November 2022, ending fighting that killed thousands of people as Ethiopian government troops, backed by allied forces from neighboring Eritrea, fought Tigrayan forces.
Tigray’s rulers accuse Ethiopian federal authorities of breaching that agreement with drone strikes. At the same time, Ethiopia’s government accuses Eritrea of pivoting to mobilize and fund armed groups in Tigray, with which it shares a border.
There is a tense calm in Mekele, the regional capital, but tensions have been rising again between local authorities and Ethiopia’s government in Addis Ababa, the federal capital.
In the feared scenario, Eritrea would team up with the Tigray People’s Liberation Front, the group that governs Tigray, in armed hostilities against Ethiopian forces.
Gebreegziabher Berehe has stopped waiting for tourists to arrive as many worry about a return to war.
The tour guide in Ethiopia ’s northern region of Tigray says his bookings have dried up, ATMs in the city of Mekele are empty and he is considering leaving a country where he can no longer afford to live.
“If war arises again, I think the situation will be even more severe than before,” the 37-year-old Berehe said. “My colleagues and I are now facing serious economic and moral crises, even before hearing the sound of any gun.”
Many residents of Mekele are looking for opportunities to escape any new fighting while they can, recalling the communications blackout and travel restrictions that Ethiopia’s government imposed on the region during the conflict.
The conflict that ended in 2022 was brutal, with widespread allegations of sexual violence and the withholding of food as a weapon of war.
Some observers see a possible war trigger in Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed’s forceful stance on efforts to regain Red Sea access for landlocked Ethiopia through Eritrea, which was lost when Eritrea gained independence from Ethiopia in 1993 after decades of guerrilla warfare.
Abiy told lawmakers earlier this month that the Red Sea and Ethiopia “cannot remain separated forever.”
Yemane Gebremeskel, the Eritrean government spokesperson, dismissed Abiy’s ambition as “delusional malaise” in comments to The Associated Press.
Eritrea, fearing a military strike on its port of Assab, has responded by warming up to its former rivals, Tigray’s leaders, even as it denies any alliance. That has caused concern in Addis Ababa, where the Ethiopian government is calling up its reserve forces.
Abiy has tried to build a global image of Ethiopia as a rising power since he took office in 2018. But he has been set back by several conflicts over the years.
United Nations Secretary-General António Guterres has called on all parties to exercise restraint, echoed by the European Union and the United Kingdom, which has warned its citizens against traveling to the region.
Ethiopian Airlines, the national carrier, on Jan. 29 canceled flights to Tigray after clashes broke out between federal troops and Tigrayan forces in Tselemti district, which is part of an area disputed by Tigray and the neighboring Amhara region. The airline resumed flights on Feb. 3.
The violence was followed by drone strikes that killed one person and injured another. Tigrayan authorities accused Ethiopian forces of carrying out the attack. Ethiopia’s military didn’t publicly respond to the allegation.
The events have affected travel to Tigray, whose ancient rock-hewn churches and dramatic highland landscapes make tourism a rare but vital source of hard currency and employment.
While Mekele business owners like Berehe worry about lost income, Tigray farmers like Johannes Tesfay worry.
Tesfay lives north of Mekele in Debretsion, where his family grows chili, potatoes and onions at the base of a mountain range that Eritrean troops used to cross into Ethiopia during the last conflict, trampling over farmland and destroying equipment.
Supply chain disruptions tied to the renewed tensions have left him gravely concerned.
“There’s no fuel for my irrigation pumps, there’s no fertilizer and there’s barely any transportation for buyers to bring the produce to market,” he said.
Asked what he would do if fighting returned to the region, Tesfay looked to the mountains and said, “What can we do? All we can do is pray. We need help from the global community to make some kind of reconciliation between all the forces.”
