Civil War Drum Beats: Ethiopia on the Brink of Renewed Conflict , Armed Clashes Erupt as Fragile peace Cracks

The fragile peace in Northern Ethiopia is fracturing. In a move signaling impending chaos, Ethiopian Airlines has abruptly suspended all flights to Mekelle and other Tigray destinations.

 For the people of Tigray, this is more than an inconvenience; it is a siege tactic. “When the planes stop, the hunger starts,” says humanitarian worker Sarah Tesfaye. “It is the first sign that they are closing the gates.”

The Flashpoints of Conflict

Reports indicate fierce clashes in Mai Degusha, a contested area of the Tselemti district in western Tigray.

 This fertile land remains a bitter source of dispute, occupied by forces from the neighboring Amhara region during the previous war.

 While the federal government proposed a referendum to settle the status of western Tigray, nearly a million displaced people remain in makeshift camps, their right to vote uncertain.

Beyond the west, new military movements in southern Tigray have been reported, involving the Ethiopian National Defense Force (ENDF) alongside Amhara militias.

 These hostilities erupted despite the 2022 Pretoria Agreement, which required the withdrawal of non-federal forces from contested zones.

A Multitude of Insurgencies

The crisis is not limited to Tigray. Ethiopia is currently gripped by multiple internal conflicts:

Amhara Region: Since April 2023, an insurgency has raged between the federal government and the Fano ethnic militia following attempts to disarm local forces.

Oromo Region: Persistent instability and armed movements continue to challenge federal authority.

Drone Warfare: The army regularly utilizes drone strikes. However, a recent strike on January 15 in the Waghemira area reportedly hit a pro-government camp, highlighting the volatility of the situation.

A Looming Humanitarian Catastrophe

The African Union (AU), which brokered the 2022 truce, estimates that the previous two-year civil war claimed at least 600,000 lives and led to the total collapse of social, health, and education services.

In a letter to the President of the African Union Commission, the provisional administration of Tigray called for “immediate action to avert an imminent war,” warning that the repercussions would be “catastrophic and irreversible,” potentially plunging the entire Horn of Africa into a wider regional conflict. As tensions rise with neighboring Eritrea and internal borders ignite, the “War Drum” in Ethiopia beats louder than ever.

Now, Tigray’s rulers accuse the federal government of “openly breaching” that agreement after a drone strike hit its forces last year. And Ethiopia’s government accuses Eritrea of mobilizing and funding armed groups in Tigray, which shares a border with Eritrea.

Recent developments 

Recent events have further destabilized Tigray, raising fears of a return to civil war.

 In August 2024, the TPLF excluded Getachew Reda, the interim regional administrator for the federally-appointed Tigrayan Interim Administration (TIA), from its fourteenth Congress. Getachew responded by declaring the gathering “null and void,” before being permanently expelled from the TPLF in September, along with several senior TIA officials. 

Amid growing tensions in Tigray, Prime Minister Ahmed’s government won a series of political victories. 

In December, it revealed that the Oromia regional government had signed a peace deal with a breakaway faction of the OLA. 

Then, in December, the Turkish government announced it had mediated a productive discussion between Ethiopia and Somalia, and that the two countries would thereafter recognize, as per the Ankara Declaration, “the potentially diverse benefits that could be derived from Ethiopia’s assured access to and from the sea, whilst respecting the territorial integrity of the Federal Republic of Somalia.” Ethiopia and Somalia formally restored diplomatic ties in January 2025. 

Since then, however, urgent challenges have emerged for the Ethiopian government.

 In Tigray, federal authority is quickly shrinking. The TPLF has taken effective control of the region’s two largest cities, Mekelle and Ad Gudan, after a series of skirmishes with federal forces that have killed, injured, and displaced thousands of civilians. The violence threatens to escalate into a regional war between Ethiopia and Eritrea. The two countries have traded diplomatic accusations in recent months, and now appear to have mobilized forces to the border. 

Eritrea fears an emboldened Abiy may look to seize Assab and Massawa, two ports along the Eritrean coast, in his quest for sea access. Meanwhile, Ethiopia believes Eritrea will capitalize on instability in Tigray to launch an offensive into the region.

Amid fears of looming conflict, Ethiopian Airlines cancels flights to Tigray