Ethiopia Renews Red Sea Ambitions: Will Abiy Ahmed’s Push for Sea Access Trigger a New Conflict in the Horn of Africa?
Ethiopia has once again renewed its pursuit of maritime access, a move that is raising growing concerns among regional and international observers that these ambitions could fuel fresh instability in the Horn of Africa, one of the world’s most strategically important regions along global trade routes.
These concerns have intensified amid escalating tensions in the Red Sea and the Strait of Hormuz following the U.S.-Iran confrontation and attacks targeting oil tankers and commercial vessels, increasing fears that regional instability could further spread across the Horn of Africa.
Abiy Ahmed Renews Ethiopia’s Call for Maritime Access
In his latest public appearance, Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed reaffirmed his country’s determination to secure access to the sea during his opening address at Ethiopia’s National Dialogue.
Abiy Ahmed stated that Ethiopia had “managed, owned, and used” the Red Sea “for thousands of years,” arguing that the country’s loss of maritime access was not the result of an external power permanently depriving Ethiopia of its strategic interests or historical trajectory, but rather the consequence of internal fragmentation and division.
He added: “Throughout this journey, because of our internal weakness and others taking advantage of it, we lost our access to the Red Sea.”
Rising Tensions Since the Somaliland Agreement
Abiy Ahmed’s remarks come as the Ethiopian government continues to insist on what it describes as its legitimate right to secure reliable maritime access—a position that has generated significant regional tensions since late 2023, particularly following the signing of the Memorandum of Understanding between Ethiopia and Somaliland, which drew mixed reactions from regional and international actors.
The Ethiopian prime minister stressed that Addis Ababa remains open to cooperation with neighboring countries based on shared interests and mutual benefit. However, he emphasized that a united Ethiopia would never abandon its national interests.
He said: “Whenever we choose to do so, we are ready to cooperate, but believing that a united Ethiopia will abandon its national interests is a baseless hope.”
Abiy Ahmed also called on external actors to better understand Ethiopia’s history, reconsider their positions, and work with Addis Ababa for mutual benefit.
Expert: Ethiopia Is Seeking to Restore Its Regional Influence
Dr. Mohamed Torchine, an analyst and expert on African affairs, said Ethiopia has historically been one of the Horn of Africa’s most influential regional powers due to its geographic location, demographic weight, and—prior to Eritrea’s independence—its strategic position. Its influence also extended into the Great Lakes region.
He explained that Addis Ababa had sought over several decades to reshape the regional landscape, particularly regarding water resources and regional security. This included promoting the Entebbe Agreement as a legal framework for Nile water sharing, as well as playing military and political roles in the Somali crisis.
Torchine added that Ethiopia is now attempting to restore the regional influence and standing it once enjoyed. However, he noted that today’s geopolitical environment is fundamentally different from that of the past.
He pointed out that the Horn of Africa is undergoing profound political and strategic transformations, with new regional and international actors expanding their influence, contributing to a gradual erosion of Ethiopia’s traditional regional dominance.
According to Torchine, Addis Ababa has become increasingly aware that its influence is diminishing, prompting efforts to regain its ability to shape regional affairs. Nevertheless, he stressed that current circumstances differ significantly from those of previous decades.
Ethiopia’s Regional Influence Expected to Decline
The African affairs expert argued that Ethiopia’s regional influence is likely to continue declining in the coming years, asserting that Addis Ababa will no longer be able to play the dominant role it once held for several reasons, most notably its policies toward regional security issues.
He explained that Ethiopia’s approach to security challenges in Sudan, Somalia, and Eritrea, coupled with accusations of interference in several regional conflicts, has weakened confidence in its regional role.
He further noted that Ethiopia’s support for Somaliland, as well as its positions regarding Puntland, has further complicated the security landscape in the Horn of Africa, making the current situation far more dangerous than in previous years.
Warning Over Threats to Regional Security and Stability
Dr. Mohamed Torchine warned that Ethiopia’s ambitions to secure maritime access represent a genuine threat to peace and stability across the Horn of Africa.
He added that countries in the region still possess limited political and military capabilities to confront such challenges, reducing their ability to respond effectively to any actions that could disrupt the regional balance.
Torchine further stated that if these countries receive sufficient political, military, and security support from regional or international partners, direct confrontations with Ethiopia could become possible—not only involving Somalia, Eritrea, or Sudan, but potentially extending to Kenya as well, despite Nairobi’s close relations with Addis Ababa.
He concluded that potential flashpoints include border disputes, transboundary water issues, Ethiopia’s maritime access demands, and allegations of support for armed groups opposed to governments across the region, warning that the Horn of Africa is likely to face even greater complexity unless these disputes are resolved through comprehensive political solutions.
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