African airlines have entered a state of high alert following a dire warning from the Lufthansa Group, which projects that the closure of the Strait of Hormuz could add $2 billion (€1.7 billion) to its fuel expenses this year.
While global aviation is reeling from Middle East tensions, African carriers are disproportionately vulnerable, as an estimated 70% of the continent’s jet fuel imports transit through the affected Gulf region. With kerosene prices skyrocketing above $200 per barrel, fuel now accounts for up to 40% of operating costs for African airlines—nearly double the global average.
This “fuel shock” has already forced major players like Ethiopian Airlines to cancel over 100 weekly services, resulting in a staggering $137 million loss in a single week in March, while Kenya Airways has slashed its Middle East capacity by 30%.
The crisis is triggering a cascade of emergency measures across the continent’s aviation infrastructure. In South Africa, FlySafair has introduced significant fuel surcharges after coastal fuel prices surged by 70% in one week, while Nigeria’s Air Peace has warned of systemic flight delays due to acute supply constraints. Domestically, Nigerian airlines are facing a catastrophic 270% increase in aviation fuel costs since February, with industry leaders threatening a total suspension of operations if prices do not stabilize.
The volatility has forced Lufthansa itself to redirect its fleet capacity away from ten cancelled Middle Eastern destinations toward African and Asian routes, seeking to mitigate the impact of what CEO Carsten Spohr describes as the most acute shock to aviation since the 2020 pandemic.
In this landscape of disruption, the Dangote Petroleum Refinery is emerging as a critical strategic “buffer” for the continent.
By ramping up refined petroleum exports to 416,000 barrels per day in April and initiating direct supply lines to Ethiopian Airlines, the refinery is attempting to decouple African energy security from the vulnerabilities of the Middle East.
However, analysts warn that despite the rise of local refining, the sheer scale of the global supply deficit—marked by a 106.6% year-on-year surge in kerosene prices—remains an indomitable challenge for carriers with thin margins and limited hedging buffers.
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