African Gas Pipeline: Why Are Algeria and Morocco Racing to Secure Africa’s Largest Energy Project?
Libyan Political Analyst: The African Gas Pipeline Could Compete with Russian Gas, but Political Rivalry and Security Challenges Continue to Hinder the Project
Libyan writer and political analyst Idris Ahmid has affirmed that the competition between Algeria and Morocco over the African Gas Pipeline project is part of a long-standing strategic effort to transport Nigerian natural gas to Europe. He noted that the project carries significant economic and geopolitical implications, while also facing political, security, and technical challenges that could affect its implementation.
In exclusive remarks to AfroNews , responding to a question about the nature of the Algerian-Moroccan competition over African gas transport projects to Europe, Ahmid explained that the initiative dates back several years. The Algeria-Nigeria pipeline project originated from an agreement reached in 2002, while the Morocco-Nigeria pipeline project was launched in 2017.
He added that both projects ultimately aim to supply the European market, stressing that Nigeria seeks to strengthen its position as a major exporter of natural gas in addition to its oil exports, which represents Abuja’s primary strategic objective in the energy sector.
The African Gas Pipeline and the Global Energy Market
Commenting on the strategic and economic significance of the African Gas Pipeline amid the ongoing transformations in the global energy market—particularly following recent geopolitical developments, the U.S.-Iran confrontation, and tensions surrounding the Strait of Hormuz—the Libyan political analyst said the project could eventually become a competitor to Russian gas.
He pointed out that Europe has been searching for alternative gas suppliers since the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine war. However, the African Gas Pipeline is not expected to become operational before 2030 or even 2036, by which time the geopolitical landscape may have changed significantly.
Ahmid explained that if the war between Russia and Ukraine ends and energy cooperation between Russia and Europe resumes, the economic viability of the project could be affected. He also highlighted additional technical factors, including gas quality, transportation costs, and operational considerations.
Regarding the Strait of Hormuz crisis, Ahmid said he does not believe it will have a direct impact on the project because its implementation requires many years, making current regional crises unlikely to influence its long-term trajectory.
Differences Between the Algerian and Moroccan Routes
Idris Ahmid outlined the key differences between the two competing pipeline projects.
He explained that the Nigeria-Algeria Gas Pipeline passes through Niger, covering approximately 4,000 kilometers across desert regions. This route could face significant security risks due to the presence of armed groups and the continuing instability in Niger.
By contrast, the Nigeria-Morocco Gas Pipeline is designed to pass through 13 African countries, many of which are themselves gas importers. According to Ahmid, this gives the project an additional developmental dimension beyond simply transporting natural gas.
He added that the Moroccan route extends for more than 6,000 kilometers, with substantial sections running along the Atlantic coastline and offshore, making it technically different from the Algeria-bound route.
Project Cost and Financing Challenges
The Libyan political analyst stated that the African Gas Pipeline is estimated to cost around $30 billion, emphasizing that securing financing and guaranteeing long-term gas supplies remain among the project’s greatest challenges.
He noted that the issue of financing and supply guarantees was approved by the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) during a meeting in Freetown. While Algeria may possess the financial capacity to support implementation, he stressed that the project remains in the implementation phase and is still awaiting concrete execution.
Political Disputes Intensify the Competition
Ahmid also pointed out that diplomatic relations between Algeria and Morocco remain severed, with ongoing political disputes and mutual accusations between the two neighboring countries.
He argued that the competition over the gas pipeline extends beyond economics and has become deeply intertwined with broader political and strategic rivalries.
He expressed hope that the competition could instead evolve into healthy economic competition based on mutual interests, benefiting both countries, which play influential roles in North Africa and across the African continent.
Ahmid also voiced his hope that the Algeria-Morocco Gas Pipeline could eventually resume operations, contributing to greater regional economic integration.
A Project That Could Strengthen Africa’s Position in Global Energy
The Libyan analyst emphasized that cooperation among 13 to 15 African countries within the framework of the African Gas Pipeline would increase international interest in Africa at a time of intensifying global competition over energy resources.
He said the project has the potential to promote economic development, social progress, and regional stability across the continent while strengthening African integration under the umbrella of the African Union.
At the same time, he warned of the risks associated with growing international competition for Africa’s natural resources, cautioning that geopolitical rivalries could complicate the project’s future.
Can the Project Solve the Global Energy Crisis?
Concluding his remarks, Idris Ahmid stressed that the African Gas Pipeline will not provide an immediate solution to the global energy crisis, noting that construction has not yet begun and that, even if work starts soon, the pipeline is unlikely to become operational before 2036.
He explained that if the global energy crisis persists, it is likely to continue for years because the project requires a lengthy implementation period. During that time, new geopolitical and economic developments could significantly reshape the international energy landscape.
Ahmid concluded by saying that while the African Gas Pipeline has attracted considerable regional and international attention, it remains far from full implementation. Meanwhile, much of the current competition revolves around securing construction contracts, investment opportunities, and long-term commercial partnerships, prompting major global powers to closely monitor what could become one of Africa’s most significant future energy infrastructure projects.
read more
