Ethiopia has witnessed a notable development over the past few hours following accusations by the authorities in the Tigray region that the Ethiopian federal government has launched a new military offensive in Western Tigray, reviving fears of a possible return to war in northern Ethiopia.
The latest developments come amid an increasingly complex situation in the Amhara region, where clashes and a cycle of advances and retreats continue between the Ethiopian federal army and the Fano militia. The two sides had previously been allies during the war that erupted in the Tigray region in 2020.
Tigray War: High Death Toll and Difficulty in Documenting Casualties
According to various estimates, the death toll from the Tigray war ranged between 100,000 and 600,000 people, amid significant difficulties in accurately documenting the number of casualties due to service disruptions and the blockade imposed on the region during the conflict, which lasted from 2020 to 2022.
The latest developments have raised concerns about the possibility of renewed armed confrontations in northern Ethiopia, particularly as political and military disputes between the federal government in Addis Ababa and the Tigray regional authorities remain unresolved, with several issues related to the Pretoria Cessation of Hostilities Agreement still unsettled.
Tigray Authorities Report Clashes in Western Region
Local Ethiopian media reports quoted Tigray regional authorities as confirming that clashes broke out in the early hours of Saturday, August 1, in the direction of Shererina, an area located in the western part of the region.
In a statement issued today, the regional administration led by the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) said the federal government had “declared open war” in Western Tigray, accusing it of escalating what the statement described as an ongoing confrontation with the region.
The statement added that, alongside what Tigray authorities described as an “escalation of the comprehensive siege and strangulation” imposed on the region’s population, as well as attacks carried out by drones and proxy armed forces, the federal government had “launched an open war.”
Tigray authorities linked the reported developments to months of escalating political and military tensions between the federal government and the regional administration.
The statement accused the federal government of engaging, since the signing of the Pretoria Cessation of Hostilities Agreement in 2022, in what it described as “conspiracies, sieges, strangulation and various military preparations,” without providing specific evidence to substantiate these allegations.
Tigray authorities said the federal government had continued, even after the signing of the Pretoria Agreement, what they described as “various conspiracies, sieges, strangulation operations and military preparations.”
Tigray Calls for Preparations for Renewed Conflict
Tigray authorities called on residents of the region, security forces, civil society organizations and religious institutions to prepare for what they described as a renewed conflict, urging them to join what they called the “struggle for national survival.”
The statement stressed that the regional authorities would “never surrender to national destruction,” while calling on Tigrayan forces and their supporters to prepare, in the words of the statement, “to make miraculous history today as we did yesterday.”
Tigray authorities also appealed to the international community to intervene, warning of the repercussions that could result from what they described as a war initiated by the federal government in the region.
The statement said that “the international community must recognize the consequences of the war ignited in this region,” calling on the international community to take the necessary measures.
Rising Tensions Between the Ethiopian Government and the TPLF
The accusations come amid a broader deterioration in relations between the central government in Addis Ababa and the authorities in Tigray, with growing indications of widening disagreements over political and security issues related to the post-war period.
On July 7, Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed accused Sudan, the Tigray People’s Liberation Front and Eritrea of cooperating against Ethiopia, comparing their alleged alignment to the alliance that contributed to the overthrow of the Derg regime. He also suggested that unnamed external actors were involved in these developments.
In response, Tigrayan officials announced that the 2022 Pretoria Agreement had “collapsed,” accusing the federal government of failing to implement key provisions of the agreement and of preparing to resume hostilities.
The Tigray People’s Liberation Front also claimed that Ethiopian federal forces were mobilizing troops and moving personnel from Western Tigray toward the eastern part of the region in preparation for a possible confrontation.
International Concern Over the Prospect of Renewed War in Northern Ethiopia
As tensions escalate once again, international actors have expressed concern over the latest developments. The European Union and the United States have urged both the Ethiopian federal government and the Tigray authorities to avoid escalation and recommit to implementing the Pretoria Cessation of Hostilities Agreement.
The calls come as concerns grow that continued tensions between the Ethiopian government and the Tigray authorities, coupled with the ongoing conflict in the Amhara region, could create an increasingly complex security environment that threatens stability in northern Ethiopia and potentially extends its repercussions across the wider region.
African Affairs Expert: Mutual Accusations Reflect Deep Disagreements Over the Pretoria Agreement
Dr. Mohamed Torshin, an expert on African affairs, told Afro News that “the repeated accusations between the Ethiopian federal army and the Tigray People’s Liberation Front are mutual and ongoing, and they consistently reflect the extent of the disagreements and differences in views between the central government and the Tigray People’s Liberation Front regarding the Pretoria Agreement.”
Torshin noted that the Pretoria Agreement had been “strongly relied upon by the regional and international community as an entry point for achieving security and stability in Ethiopia.” However, he said that “the positions remain far apart, at least between the most prominent and influential faction within the Tigray People’s Liberation Front and the federal government.”
The African affairs expert added that the continuation of the current situation, coupled with the involvement of the Fano militias, which were supported and strengthened to confront the Tigray forces, “could also lead to proxy confrontations, as happened in the past.”
He noted that such a scenario would depend on political arrangements and complexities, but stressed that “there is no doubt that this will turn the Amhara region as well as Tigray into arenas of armed conflict and confrontation.”
Such developments, he warned, “will directly affect security and stability in Africa.”
Could War Return to Northern Ethiopia?
The latest developments in Western Tigray have once again raised questions about the future of the Pretoria Agreement and the ability of the Ethiopian federal government and the Tigray authorities to contain their escalating political and military differences.
The simultaneous tensions in Tigray and the continued fighting between the Ethiopian army and the Fano militia in Amhara are further complicating the security landscape in northern Ethiopia, particularly given the history of conflict and military alliances that emerged during the Tigray war.
As the federal government and Tigray authorities continue to trade accusations over responsibility for the escalation and alleged military preparations, fears remain that continued tensions could undermine what remains of the understandings established under the Pretoria Agreement and pave the way for a new round of armed confrontations, potentially threatening security and stability in Ethiopia and the wider Horn of Africa.
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